When the Fatal Conceit is Fatal

Last night I went to see Rise of the Planet of the Apes and although the movie is a little far off from what Hayek envisioned, I felt it followed the book nearly perfectly. A scientist seeks out to solve a problem. His solution addresses the immediate problem, but little is understood about what other ripples it might create until it is too late. The only difference between the book and the movie was that the book is directed toward economic policies. However, had they made the movie end in financial apocalypse it would have been a little boring. Not that financial policy is boring, but because it would be too much like watching the daily news.

Eating Chocolate and Getting...

Several years ago at a family reunion my uncle Gavin jokingly said he was working on a book called, Eating Chocolate and Getting Smarter: a summary of the startling research funded by the Hersey corporation. Sadly, the book has yet to be published, although I am convinced it would give the Twilight series a run for its money on the all time best selling list.
However, after the years of waiting it looks there may be enough research to write my own book, Eating Chocolate and Getting Stronger: a misinterpritation of research by someone eating a Hersey bar.
Finally, there is research being circulated in the scientific community worth getting excited about! Clearly, this research is inchoate, it may be a few more years before they realize the correct daily dose is not a sixth of an ounce, but rather a sixth of a pound. But one expects those types of mistakes at these early stages. This still represents giant leaps forward in the long fought battle of getting chocolate its proper place on the food pyramid. (For those neophytes who are new to this battle, the proper place is at the bottom as it is the base for all the other important food groups such as cookies, cakes, etc.)
So to all my fellow chocolatiers, I say raise your mug of hot coco high and solute those hard working scientist who may soon find the evidence to support my next book: Eating Chocolate and Getting Skinnier: the portentous report on how the Hersey corporation can save America from obesity!

Update: Apparently someone is already doing research for my next book!

Marfa

Last summer Denny and I visited Marfa, Tx as part of a west Texas adventure with my cousin, Ryan. For those of you who haven't had the privilege of visiting Marfa, just imagine the town you are living in without the tall buildings, short buildings, apartment buildings, houses, parks, stores, factories, roads, trees, flowers, grass, and anything else that may be in your town. You are now imagining Marfa.
Since leaving Marfa I occasionally get this itch to go back. It could spurred on by the prospect of living in cities like Houston, New York, or San Francisco after graduation. Or it could just be that going back to school and reliving the "what am I going to be when I grow up" phase of life has brought with it some introspection. Or it could just be that I read about a guy, John Wells, who decided to do just that. Reading his story reminds me a little bit of a letter written by Chris McCandles (taken from Into the Wild).

So many people live within unhappy circumstances and yet will not take the initiative to change their situation because they are conditioned to a life of security, conformity, and conservatism. All of which may appear to give one peace of mind but in reality nothing is more damaging to the adventure spirit within a man than a secure feature. The very basic of a man's living spirit is his passion for adventure. The joy of life comes from our encounters with new experiences and hence there is no greater joy than to have an endlessly changing horizon. For each day to have a new and different sun. If you want to get more out of life, Ron, you must lose you're inclination for monotonous security and adopt a helter sketer type of life. That will first appear to you to be crazy. But once you become accustomed to such a life, you will see it's full meaning and it's incredible beauty. And so, Ron, in short, get out of sulton city and hit the road.

John is clearly not as care free (or possibly care-less) as Chris was. But, he definitely was able to throw the security blanket away and carve out his own adventure. However, before I follow John and head out to the middle of no where, I am going to try to see if I can ever find a way to live with just 100 items. But, of course if I wait for that, I can also put off my purchase of How to survive in the desert for a few more years...

Bike Safety

At work we have morning safety meetings and we just had one on bike safety. The presenter shared 5 tips for staying safe on your bike.

1. Never ride a bike without mirrors. You wouldn't drive a car without mirrors so why would you go on a bike that didn't have them?

I didn't catch any of the others. I was too busy remembering how I drove my car without mirrors for two weeks before finally reattaching them.

Church Quotes - Pioneer day edition

After informing the congregation that her family were pioneers she invited us to think back to what life was like for them.

Think of what traveling was like back in 1900. Coming across the plains without A/C in your car and no iPhones or DVD players to keep you entertained...and then think about how much harder it would have been having Laman and Lemuel as brothers.

Bittman

This is the fourth time I have begun writing a counter argument to Mark Bittman's latest opinion piece, just to toss it aside thinking it wasn't worth the time or energy. Today I seem to have an excess of both.
For those unfamiliar with Mark Bittman, he is a New York Times food critic turned opinion writer. He focuses on national health issues, such as giving the poor better access to healthy food options, reducing obesity, and improving the overall health of the country.
Those are things everyone wants and, not surprisingly, most people love his articles. I, however, do not.
M wife, Denny, always thinks it is funny that we have such animosity towards each other yet in other ways are very similar. Mark is a bit of a health nut, he goes on short stints where he will be a Vegan. Most of his recipes focus on being simple combinations of vegetables, fruits, and whole grains. So although our recipe books may look very similar we are bitter enemies.
Without boring you too much with our former disagreements (the list is long) I will just focus on his most recent article. This week, Mark, attempts to enlighten us with an idea that has been floating around for the past few years, a soda tax. I'll spare you the three page diatribe and summarize here. Mark believes a soda tax (he suggest 1 or 2 cents per ounce) would result in a 20% increase in soda prices, a 20% decrease in soda consumption, $13 Billion of federal revenue, 1.5 million fewer people with obesity, 400,000 cases of diabetes, and health care savings of over $30 Billion.
Sounds great, you can almost see Mark dancing in a field of sunflowers at the end of a rainbow while he explains his master plan. Sadly, it is time for me to dispel it.
First, let's look at what he wants to do with all that cash he wants to save the government. Initially, he mentions the cash "could be used to subsidize the purchase of staple foods like seasonal greens, vegetables, whole grains, dried legumes and fruit."

We could sell those staples cheap — let’s say for 50 cents a pound — and almost everywhere: drugstores, street corners, convenience stores, bodegas, supermarkets, liquor stores, even schools, libraries and other community centers.

Now, I stand to gain a lot from this plan. Let's just look at my grocery receipt from earlier today.

1. Banana's ($.44/pound)
2. 3 Mangoes ($0.88 each)
3. 2 Onions ($0.79/pound)
4. Strawberries ($1.99/pound)
5. blueberries ($2.59/ 16 ounces)
6. crushed peanuts ($2.19/pound)
7. Soy milk ($1.50 - I had a coupon:-)
8. Canned Beans ($0.66)
9. Spinach ($1.59/pound)
10. Dark Chocolate Chips ($2.79)
11. Greek yogurt ($2.50)
    

With the exception of the Greek yogurt, the Chocolate Chips, and the Soy milk everything on my list would be subsidized, and heavily. Which brings me to my first point. How are we going to subsidize all of these things to be 50 cents a pound from charging 2 cents an ounce on soda? We would have to subsidize spinach (probably the healthiest thing I buy) with $1.09/pound! Difficult. Especially if we are going to implement all of the other things Mark has in mind.

Money could be returned to communities for local spending on gyms, pools, jogging and bike trails; and for other activities at food distribution centers; for Meals on Wheels in those towns with a large elderly population, or for Head Start for those with more children; for supermarkets and farmers’ markets where needed. And more.

Mark was doing the dancing when he got to this part of the article. I was shaking my head. Honestly, no one would appreciate putting in pools and bike trails more than myself. However, I don't think we should do it by robbing the poor, which is what this tax would do. Go to any grocery store, stand in the soda isle and take a look at the first 20 people who buy soda. Then stand in the produce isle look who is buying there. You will quickly see this is a nice way to take money from the poor and give it straight to the wealthy.
For the moment though, lets ignore that this is regressive tax and try to determine if it would really cut soda consumption. The claim is raising the price 20% will reduce consumption 20%. The proof against that argument is displayed daily at any restaurant in the US. It has boggled my mind for decades that people are willing to pay as much as a 300% premium for soda when they eat out. People like to have soda and they are more than willing to pay for it, a price increase will lead to falling consumption, but not nearly as much as he thinks.
Next, Mark's plan only taxes sugary drinks, it does not tax diet drinks (which are just as bad). If Coke suddenly cost $1.20 and Diet Coke is $1.00 people will not be moving to healthier alternatives, they will be reaching for the diet drinks. Also, as Mark mentions, soda companies will quickly find ways of altering their drinks slightly to avoid the tax (if it does have a substantial impact on sales). Ensuring poor people still have a plentiful supply of calorie rich nutrient deprived sugary drinks.
Penultimately, can depriving Americans their 44.7 gallons of soda they drink each year really actually reduce obesity and diabetes at such high rates? As with all things, I am not an expert on this, but first the obese people I know already drink diet soda so this tax would have very little effect on them. Second, there is plenty of blame to go around when it comes to obesity in America, just as there are plenty of ways for people to become obese. My weight has fluctuated substantially the past few years as my activity level has decreased and my motabolism has slowed to a crawl. Although I haven't had soda in 5 years and gave up french fries over 2 years ago, I still occasionally slip up to the "over weight" side of the BMI scale. And I exercise far more than "the average American". My point, it will take a lot more than cutting back on soda to have a meaningful change in the obesity problem.
Finally, Mark shares impressive numbers for the amount of money we could save in health related expenses with this tax. A few years ago Greg Mankiw pointed out one reason why these numbers are flawed. A co-worker of mine made the same point after getting a health exam. "Good news and bad news. The good news is my health is still in great shape. The bad news is I need to keep contributing to my 401k." To avoid being too morbid, I will just say, dead people have very few expenses.
Mark does have very good goals, however his plan of attack is completely misguided. I am sure if he had his way he would skip the soda tax and just go straight to creating a modern version of the 18th amendment and become another victim of the "Fatal Conceit".

Sulfur or Greenbacks?

Yesterday, as I stepped out of the bus at the Baytown refinery, I was greeted by an unpleasant odor. When I asked what it was, the HR representative who was giving me a tour said, "it's the smell of money." That must also be why my wallet smells so bad...

100 Items

If you could only have 100 of your possessions, what would you keep?

1. Bike
2. Pump
3. Tevas
   

For the past few days I have been trying to decide what I can live without and getting down to 100 items is much harder than I thought. The idea to pair things down to 100 came to me after reading about a couple who did just that. I have always considered myself somewhat of a minimalist, however I am also a pack rat. So although I purchase very few things, I also throw
out far fewer. Keeping me well out of 100 mark.

55. Pizza Cutter
56. 11 t-shirts
67. 5 framed pictures

Well a year has past since I first read the article about the strobel's and their 100 possessions and I had all but forgotten about it until last week when a friend of mine brought it up and told me how much further he had moved from that goal after having a baby. Then I realized this short period of my life may be the only time I can live with just 100 items to my name.

134. Cell Phone
135. Car
136. Car sun shield

I started by counting up everything I owned, thinking I might already be down to close to 100. After all, the majority of my things are still in Utah. Before I knew it though, I was passing 200.

215. Dust Pan
216. bug spray
217. Alarm Clock

227 is what the total came to. Of the top of my head I thought of about 30 things I would never miss, but getting rid of over half of my stuff does seem to be a bit difficult. So although the Strobels found happiness with just 100 items, I still have a long way before I reach that kind of nirvana.

The Splash and The Dash come back

For 5 years the masses have been asking, "Will Gavin Gee ever come out of retirement and return to regain his 3rd place crown at BYU's Splash and Dash?" After celebrating his 30th birthday most critics had written him off. "He's old and washed out, he couldn't compete in the 6th graders field day races, let alone the Splash and Dash" commented a reporter who has been covering the event for over 15 years. "He had a good run. I mean 7 third place finishes, that is quite a streak. If he came back it would just be a big disappointment to see him finish out of the medals."
However, despite the warnings of the critics he signed up, not for the standard event like some expected, but the Elite. A 1 mile swim and a 10K run would have been tough for Gavin in his prime, but the last 5 years had put him well beyond that.
It was clear after the first lap that this was not the Gavin we are used to seeing in the Richards building. After a mere 300 yards he was being passed by not one, not two, but three of the Otto brothers. In years past Gavin had relied heavily on his lead in the pool to give him an edge, clearly this year he would not have that luxury.
Surprisingly, Gavin was able to pick up his pace and keep the competition within reach. He got out of the pool just over 23 minutes into the race. "I knew it wasn't going to be an amazing swim, but I was just hoping to keep it under 30 minutes" Gavin told a reporter after the race. It ended up being a good thing he finished when he did just moments after he got out of the pool another competitor jumped out, narrowly putting him in 4th place. The first 5K was a bit ugly, but near the 2 mile mark Gavin seemed to get his second wind and was able to surpass one of the Otto's to move into 3rd place. After a strong 5K finish it looked feasible that Gavin would catch the competition, however his steam seemed to putter out at the 4.5 mile mark and Gavin had to watch the others add more distance to their lead. However, the little energy Gavin had left was enough to keep him going to reclaim his 3rd place title.
"It was the most amazing feat of athleticism I have ever seen--well the third most I guess" said Denny Gee, Gavin's wife and trusty lap counter.
When asked what he was going to do next Gavin replied, "I'm going to read a case about Disney Land!"